Ukrainian Thoughts

Things are not looking good in the Ukraine these days.  I had a feeling during the Olympics that Russia would do something after the games were over, and I guess I was right.  There is no question that Russia has committed an act of aggression which, in other times would have been considered an act of war.  After all, the First World War was started because one side mobilized their troops.  Fortunately for now, the Ukrainian government is being cautious and not forcing the issue.  Russia, of course, is trying to provoke the Ukraine into firing the first shot so that they can claim self-defence in a war they dearly want.  Vladimir Putin must prove that the “new Russia” is as tough as the old Russia . . . or that he deserves to be the new Czar.

So what to do?  In this day and age, that is a difficult decision to make.  It is unlikely that diplomacy and rhetoric are going to work, certainly not is the short term.  One of the most troubling things about today’s (Sunday) actions is the move by barely disguised Russian troops to surround Ukrainian military installations throughout the Crimea.  Although they say they are there to protect Russian speaking people in that area, we don’t know what their instructions are to carry that mandate out.  One of the ways to test this would be to have the Ukrainian Army send a mounted company of infantry out of one of these camps and see what the Russian reaction would be.  If they were not interfered with, they would be instructed to keep going to one of the other installations.  If they were interfered with, and certainly if shots were fired, they should be instructed to return immediately to their base.  They would have to be very good, disciplined troops to withstand any pressure they encounter.

But what can the western nations do?  Militarily, there is not very much they can do.  The Ukraine is hard to get to for any of the NATO countries except Poland.  The US, in particular, would be very restricted in its ability to get much firepower there in any significant quantity.  The US’s principal power projection assets are built around US Navy carrier battle groups.  But their transit to and operation in the Black Sea would be very limited.  A small sea surrounded by hostile forces (Russia, Iran) is not a very viable place to operate these assets.  

There is another factor at work here as well . . . the financial ability of the US and European nations to wage a war.  Would a hostile US congress authorize the borrowing of money to fund such a war?  Are any of the European countries healthy enough financially to find the necessary funds?  Germany cannot afford to do this alone.  Notice that the US, for example, is planning to cut its army to a level not seen since 1940.  And there is serious consideration being made to reduce their aircraft carrier force from ten to nine or even eight.  This would also reduce the number of ships (cruisers, destroyers, submarines) dedicated to these lost battle groups.  

It doesn’t give you a warm fuzzy feeling about being able to deter further aggression by a show of force.  

So the western powers will continue to talk in the halls of NATO and the UN, and Russia will carry on with its aggression.  Russia will likely not stop until it has annexed the Crimea, and perhaps parts of eastern Ukraine.  It will then present the world with a fait accompli, and probably a promise from the Ukraine that it will make no overtures for closer cooperation with Western Europe.  Pity the Ukraine.  It was only trying to get out from under eight centuries of history.