Short Snappers Too

This is the second installment of short snappers, one sentence and one paragraph observations on common subjects.

You have to give a lot of credit to the Ukrainian military for not retaliating to Russian provocation.  If they had retaliated, Russia would undoubtedly have used it as an excuse for all out-war against the Ukraine. 

 

Malaysian flight 370 has raised more theories than Einstein in his prime.  The only one I have not heard is that it is the beginning of the Rapture. That’s probably because most of the passengers were not Christian.

Justice Minister Peter McKay is in a snit against the small Nova Scotia town newspaper in his riding.  As a result, he has cancelled his subscription to the paper.  So much for paying attention to the goings on in your riding.

Mme. Marois, she of Parti Quebec fame, seems to be doing all she can to lose the upcoming provincial election.  In the eighteen or so months she has been in office, she has spent so much time with language issues, the ridiculous charter idea and other ideological issues that she has forgotten that one of her key responsibilities is the economic health of her province.

Since we’re talking about politics, how about the government tabling another omnibus bill, supposedly to implement their budget?  However, many of the items have nothing to do with the budget, including the provision to add “Royal” to the name of the Canadian Air Force and Canadian Navy (again).  Maybe the government would like to put forward one enormous omnibus year per year, pass it quickly with their majority, and then send everyone home.

I spent the last day and a half trying to find a switch on a computer to turn the WiFi on and off.  It turns out there is no switch.  It’s all done with soft switch commands, but it is almost impossible to find that out using their on-line help or even the computer manual (even if you can find that).

You really have to feel sorry about what the Maritime Provinces have been through with the weather over the last few weeks. They have had a snow storm every Wednesday since the beginning of the year. And apparently it is not over yet.  There is another one due tomorrow and again on, you guessed it, Wednesday.  So much for the west coasters complaining about the rain.

Has anyone figured out what’s secret about Victoria’s Secrets?

Trivia Quiz:  What was the original title of the theme song from the movie and TV series M.A.S.H.? (Send your answers to me at jgf@rogers.com. I will give you the answer in the next posting)

Some Thoughts on Quebec and Its Election

There is a lot of speculation going on about the upcoming election in Quebec in April.  It will, once again, feature the threat of a referendum and possibly separation. As some have said, Quebec will keep trying referenda until they get it right. The PQ has brought in a “star” candidate and is making all finds of claims about how good things will be after Quebec is a separate country, or maybe not such a separate country, depending at which promise you listen to.  There are also a lot of claims being made by opposition parties and pundits.  So let’s look at some of these promises, threats and pontification.

There is no question that the PQ and Madame Marois appeal primarily the old stock French Canadians.  By putting up the Quebec Charter of (misplaced) Values, she has shown that she is willing to alienate ethnic and religious minorities to achieve her ends.  She must have a majority government to ensure passage of the charter to satisfy her majority.  But she could also use that charter for a more forceful move.  It is inevitable that the charter will be challenged in court, and probably will make it to the Supreme Court of Canada.  That court will likely find it unconstitutional (or at least Mme Marois hopes so).  This will give her the perfect argument to show how Canada is thwarting the desires of the Quebec people.  This, she hopes, will be the leverage she needs to win the referendum.  

Mme Marois seems to have quite the view about how the world will look after separation. 

 Supposedly, the sovereign nation of Quebec will have no borders with the rest of Canada; will continue to use Canadian currency, including a seat at the Bank of Canada; and will enjoy unlimited free trade with the rest of Canada, and presumably with the US through NAFTA.  She assumes that all of these other parties will just go along with her vision with no objections or negotiations.  You wonder if she has jumped ahead on Justin Trudeau’s thoughts on decriminalization of marijuana, and started to use it herself.  Does she really think that Canada is going to allow all this to happen?  That we are just going to sit back and let this all happen?  Please!  Let’s start with free trade and work back from there.  It is unlikely that the US, and perhaps Mexico, will not require stiff negotiations before it even considers Quebec for membership in NAFTA.  Among other things, Quebec will have to satisfy US considers about security and may demand some serious input into Quebec law that regulates trade (Quebec has no such laws now except as they are contained in Canadian law).  At least until such negotiations are completed, Canada will have to insist on borders with Quebec, and may want to keep those borders permanently (I for one hope so).  In addition, Canada will have to be very careful about allowing Quebec to use our currency.  Any economic downturn in Quebec, which is very likely after separation as they get their house in order and companies figure out if they still want to have operations in Quebec, will have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar.  Canada will have to think very carefully about how it will treat Quebec when threated with separation.  There is no advantage to Canada to allow any of these “dreams”.  In fact, allowing Quebec to have any control over Canadian fiscal and monetary policy will be detrimental to Canada.

Some people have said that Quebec cannot afford to leave confederation because of the loss of $8B in transfer payments, but that is not necessarily so.  As a country, Quebec will have all of the powers of taxation that any sovereign country has, including tariffs, duties and income tax.  So it can, if it wants, raise whatever revenue that the population will tolerate.  Quebec already has one of the highest taxations in Canada so making up the shortfall may well be a price that Quebecers are prepared to pay for separation.  What will not be tolerable is for Quebec to assume that Canada will somehow forgive existing debt or help in paying off that debt. 

In previous referenda and similar threats, the rest of Canada has always been willing to react positively (remember “My Canada includes Quebec”?) and cater to Quebec demands.  But people are getting tired of this game and you have to wonder if the rest of Canada will just say, “If you want to go, go!”  There might not be a backlash demanding concessions and holding on to Quebec at all costs.  In particular, if the present Canadian government, with its western bias, is still in power it will undoubtedly be a hard negotiator and not so federalist as other parties.  And this could well be the situation since some pundits are saying that Mme Marois will want to hold the referendum before the next federal election so that the more Quebec oriented parties, the Liberals and NDP, are not in a position to strongly advocate for federalism.

And to think that they are making all of this effort just to try and turn back the clock.  The PQ and its followers say that they are trying to preserve the French language and traditional culture.  But it is impossible to turn back the clock.  The culture has already been changed by outside influences, whether by the impact of immigrants or the inroads of outside culture via television, radio, movies and the internet.  As Quebec passes on some of its culture to the outside world, so the outside culture passes into Quebec in return.  I doubt whether anyone could even describe the “old culture” with much success.  It is gone.   As for the French language, it will ultimately disappear as a dominant language in North America.  Commerce, culture and travel will see to that.  Quebec has to realize that they are a part of North America, and their French language speakers amount to only a 8 million in a continental total of over 350 million people; a mere 2.2%.  Just as many languages in the past have gone from general use because of the influence of more dominant languages, so will French in North America.  Sorry folks, but your days are numbered.  No matter how much Quebec tries to preserve the French language with laws and demands, it will only prolong the inevitable.

Ukrainian Thoughts

Things are not looking good in the Ukraine these days.  I had a feeling during the Olympics that Russia would do something after the games were over, and I guess I was right.  There is no question that Russia has committed an act of aggression which, in other times would have been considered an act of war.  After all, the First World War was started because one side mobilized their troops.  Fortunately for now, the Ukrainian government is being cautious and not forcing the issue.  Russia, of course, is trying to provoke the Ukraine into firing the first shot so that they can claim self-defence in a war they dearly want.  Vladimir Putin must prove that the “new Russia” is as tough as the old Russia . . . or that he deserves to be the new Czar.

So what to do?  In this day and age, that is a difficult decision to make.  It is unlikely that diplomacy and rhetoric are going to work, certainly not is the short term.  One of the most troubling things about today’s (Sunday) actions is the move by barely disguised Russian troops to surround Ukrainian military installations throughout the Crimea.  Although they say they are there to protect Russian speaking people in that area, we don’t know what their instructions are to carry that mandate out.  One of the ways to test this would be to have the Ukrainian Army send a mounted company of infantry out of one of these camps and see what the Russian reaction would be.  If they were not interfered with, they would be instructed to keep going to one of the other installations.  If they were interfered with, and certainly if shots were fired, they should be instructed to return immediately to their base.  They would have to be very good, disciplined troops to withstand any pressure they encounter.

But what can the western nations do?  Militarily, there is not very much they can do.  The Ukraine is hard to get to for any of the NATO countries except Poland.  The US, in particular, would be very restricted in its ability to get much firepower there in any significant quantity.  The US’s principal power projection assets are built around US Navy carrier battle groups.  But their transit to and operation in the Black Sea would be very limited.  A small sea surrounded by hostile forces (Russia, Iran) is not a very viable place to operate these assets.  

There is another factor at work here as well . . . the financial ability of the US and European nations to wage a war.  Would a hostile US congress authorize the borrowing of money to fund such a war?  Are any of the European countries healthy enough financially to find the necessary funds?  Germany cannot afford to do this alone.  Notice that the US, for example, is planning to cut its army to a level not seen since 1940.  And there is serious consideration being made to reduce their aircraft carrier force from ten to nine or even eight.  This would also reduce the number of ships (cruisers, destroyers, submarines) dedicated to these lost battle groups.  

It doesn’t give you a warm fuzzy feeling about being able to deter further aggression by a show of force.  

So the western powers will continue to talk in the halls of NATO and the UN, and Russia will carry on with its aggression.  Russia will likely not stop until it has annexed the Crimea, and perhaps parts of eastern Ukraine.  It will then present the world with a fait accompli, and probably a promise from the Ukraine that it will make no overtures for closer cooperation with Western Europe.  Pity the Ukraine.  It was only trying to get out from under eight centuries of history.